Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
